The launch of the iPhone 5 in September explains Apple's results in Q4

Two days ago we told you, apparently, Apple presented the iPhone 5 on September 12 . The rumor has come from several different sources, including some very strong as Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal.

This news could explain the financial guidance Apple gave Wall Street conference last week. If you do not know what I mean, you can read the article on the financial results of Apple's Q3 2012 . But in short, Apple told the Wall Street investors that Q4 earnings would fall by 4% compared with the previous quarter. But the trick was the gross margin guidance. Apple told analysts they expected only 38.5% gross margin compared to over 42% in the most recent quarter. This led to a drop in mass actions that day. A fall that exceeded 5% in the secondary market trading.

Not the first time that Apple does this. Last year Apple also gave a lower prediction for Q4, only to give a little guidance to investors. Apple is famous for always pointing downwards.

Effect it will have the iPhone 5 in the margins

Last year could not blame the launch of the iPhone 4S margin fall in Q4, as the iPhone 4S was launched in October (U.S. fiscal year runs from October 1 of one year until 30 September the following year). The only increase occurred at the margins in Q4 last year, was motivated in part by school promotions and on the other hand, the reduction in volume due to the anticipation of the launch of a new iPhone in October. When companies sell less hardware, they lose some of their influence, so the margin is reduced.

What about this year? What this year is shaping up as a totally different story. If Apple announces the new iPhone on September 12th, and start selling on 21, then this product, guaranteed success, you will have a massive effect this quarter. There will only be a few weeks apart, but Wall Street is important because it dramatically affects the comparison with last year.

Maynard Um, an analyst at Wells Fargo, wrote about the great prepaid Apple Q3 inventory. Buy the inventory does not affect the gross margin in the period purchased, however, if it affects margins by selling inventory in the form of finished products (the expected iPhone 5). This is because in accounting, registration costs associated with the products at the time of sale and not at the time of purchase of inventory.

So when Apple starts selling its new smartphone on September 21, revenue reserves and record the cost of sales based on the cost of new inventory. Because the iPhone 5 is expected with LTE, a larger screen and more technology, a faster processor and a lot of improvements, the components will cost more. However, the price level can not change significantly. As a result, the decrease in gross margin.

The release date for this year makes Apple's guidance on Wall Street is much more credible than last year.

Can Apple regain its gross margin?

Many investors and analysts wonder if Apple can recover lost gross margin. While the analyst community often becomes obsessed with percentages, gross margin in dollars can be much more important. First of all, let's see how they affect product launches to gross margins.

We have seen how new products can damage the margins due to the incorporation of more expensive components. However, we must also consider reducing the price of older products. If Apple reduces the price of iPhone 4S $ 100, this affection to the margins. And it's a change that takes a step back, as Apple product price changes instantly.

How can the company recover from this? Well not exactly know how Apple works with its supply chain, but it is quite common for OEMs to negotiate price reductions in supply contracts during the life of the product. Surely this is what Apple does. So what you pay for a component of the iPhone 5 in the fourth quarter could be higher than that paid in December, March and beyond. While Apple can keep the selling price while reducing the cost of the bill of materials, the margin will rise.

The volume is also important. The iPhone 4S priced at $ 99 with contract, could be sold great. We've seen it before. More recently, when it launched the new iPhone, Apple lowered the price of the iPhone 2 to 399 $. Apple acknowledged that this harmed the margins, but, who cares? The iPad sales volumes are sky high, so the benefits that this movement has given Apple have been very good.

And this brings us to what we were saying earlier about measuring the gross margin in dollars or in percentage points. If you were investors, would you prefer to see sales of 50 million iPhone with a margin of 38% or sales of only 40 million phones with a margin of 42%? I'll stick with the pasta.

Speaking Volumes

If we speak of volumes we have to talk to gain market share from Apple. A study of the company Strategy Analytics has revealed some interesting numbers this week. According to their study, sales of smartphones in the U.S. declined 5% in Q2, compared with the same quarter last year. It sold 23.8 million units instead of the 25.2 million sold last year.

Apple was the only platform that grew. Android was reduced by 12%. BlackBerry was reduced by 41%. However, the almighty Apple, grew 34%.

The total U.S. market seems to be maturing, taking into account the annual decline in sales volume. However, Apple is still far behind Android in terms of market share, so it will be interesting to see how Apple gets into the competition for other markets more affordable prices.

Maybe a mini iPad? We'll know soon.

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